By Eryk Michael Smith/KHT Staff. AI-regenerated image from 2025.
TAIPEI — Taiwan must prepare for the possibility that President Donald Trump will respond to Republicans’ midterm election losses by pursuing foreign policy victories, rather than accepting tighter congressional constraints, political scientist Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁) said Thursday.
Speaking at the Institute for National Policy Research (INPR) in Taipei on Nov. 5, Kuo, the institute’s vice president, said the scale of the Republican defeat made Trump’s next moves particularly consequential for Taiwan and regional security.
“This was not simply an election defeat. It was a collapse,” Kuo said, describing the party’s losses in the House of Representatives as an “avalanche.”
“He may try to regain face in foreign affairs,” Kuo said, outlining two possible directions: Trump could seek to recover his political standing through foreign affairs, or he could adopt a more restrained approach under pressure from a more assertive Congress.
Judging from Trump’s first presidency and his conduct since returning to office, Kuo considered the first possibility more likely.
His warning placed uncertainty over presidential decision-making at the center of a discussion on how the election would affect Taiwan’s security, diplomacy, and economic relations with the United States.
Although Congress generally has less influence over presidential foreign policy decisions than domestic legislation, Kuo said the magnitude of the defeat meant its consequences could extend beyond that usual pattern.
Upcoming diplomatic meetings would provide an early indication of Trump’s response, he said.
“These discussions all have a direct bearing on Taiwan’s security and the regional situation,” Kuo said.
Kuo also suggested Beijing faced a mixed outlook. A politically weakened Trump might appear easier to deal with, but stronger congressional constraints on his military actions in Iran could undermine what Kuo described as China’s effort to use that conflict to drain American power and international leadership.
